Session Chairs:

Yangyang Ji, State University of New York at Binghamton

Papers:

"Does 'Crowd Out' Offset the Stimulus Effect of Government Deficits? A Large Scale Econometric Study"
John J. Heim, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (Retired)/SUNY Albany (Contact Author)

"Outliers and Persistence in Threshold Autoregressive Processes: A Puzzle?"
Yamin Ahmad, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Luiggi Donayre, University of Minnesota Duluth (Contact Author)

"Predicting the U.S. Recessions Using Housing Starts in Dynamic Probit Models"
Yan Cui, The University of Mississippi (Contact Author)

"Stability of Sunspot Equilibria in Real Business Cycle Models Under Infinite Horizon Learning"
Yangyang Ji, State University of New York at Binghamton (Contact Author)

"The SUNY Albany/Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 40 Equation Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy"
John J. Heim, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (Retired)/SUNY Albany (Contact Author)

Discussants:

Vipin P. Veetil, George Mason University
John J. Heim, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (Retired)/SUNY Albany
Lucy Ackert, Kennesaw State University
David N. van der Goes, University of New Mexico
Yan Cui, The University of Mississippi

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Organizers:

Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Session Chairs:

Nathan S. Balke, Southern Methodist University

Papers:

"Monitoring Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance"
Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Efthymios Pavlidis, Lancaster University
Alisa Yusupova, Lancaster University
Ivan Paya, Lancaster University
David Peel, Lancaster University
Adrienne Mack, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Valerie Grossman, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

"Incorporating the Beige Book into a Quantitative Index of Economic Activity"
Nathan S. Balke, Southern Methodist University
Michael Fulmer, Southern Methodist University
Ren Zhang, Southern Methodist University

"The (Un)Sustainability of the U.S. International Debt Position: Do Not Rely Too Much on Valuation Effects"
Andrea Civelli, University of Arkansas (Contact Author)

"Solving the Price Puzzle with an Alternative Measure of Monetary Policy"
Victor Valcarcel, Texas Tech University
John W. Keating, The University of Kansas
Logan Kelly, University of Wisconsin River Falls

Discussants:

Olivier Coibion, The University of Texas at Austin
Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Andrea Civelli, University of Arkansas
Yamin Ahmad, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater

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