| Saturday 3:00 - 4:45 p.m. SEA  | 
						Session 04D Macroeconomic Methods  | 
            
Session Chairs:  | 
          Yangyang Ji, State University of New York at Binghamton  | 
Papers:  | 
					
           "Does 'Crowd Out' Offset the Stimulus Effect of Government  Deficits? A Large Scale Econometric  Study" "Outliers and Persistence in Threshold Autoregressive Processes: A Puzzle?" "Predicting the U.S. Recessions Using Housing Starts in Dynamic Probit Models" "Stability of Sunspot Equilibria in Real Business Cycle Models Under Infinite Horizon Learning" "The SUNY Albany/Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute  40 Equation Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy"  | 
            
Discussants:  | 		
          Vipin P. Veetil, George Mason University  |